A cold front pushed through CNY late Tuesday afternoon. Ahead of the front during the day Tuesday, temperatures were just mild enough for a slushy mixture of snow, rain and sleet. Behind the front, temperatures will fall tonight with the colder air being brought in on a gusty westerly wind. This colder, moist air crossing the 36 degree warmer waters of Lake Ontario means the lake effect snow machine will get cranked up again.
As is usually the case, exact wind direction will play an important part in determining who sees the greatest accumulations, and when.
As of this writing, a Lake Effect Snow Warning is in effect for Jefferson and Lewis counties through 7pm Wednesday. Oswego county has a Lake Effect Snow Warning through 7am Thursday.
I expect the steadiest, most organized lake snows to form over the eastern Lake Ontario counties, including the Tug Hill overnight tonight and meander in that general location through at least midday Wednesday with the gusty westerly winds. It continues to look like winds will shift more into the west to northwest Wednesday afternoon which would shift the prime lake effect snow area southward, probably across the Thruway, Hancock Airport and into Syracuse by rush hour Wednesday evening. The lake snows should then hang around CNY/Onondaga county and the Syracuse area into Thursday morning and very slowly weaken. Snowfall amounts on the Tug could easily reach more than a foot and many areas of 6â?? or more across Oswego county. Amounts in the Syracuse area should average 2-6â?? with localized higher amounts. Keep in mind, with gusty winds, blowing and drifting will be an issue restricting visibilities, and wind chills will be 0 to 10 above, so bundle up.