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Cold conditions today will lead to above average temperatures starting Valentine's Day.

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Good morning! As expected, we are waking up to seasonably cold temperatures this morning. However, there is a wide range of numbers this morning. The coldest conditions can be found from Oneida Lake and all points north and east. After a quiet but chilly day, temperatures will go above average starting Tuesday. While there will be some variability for the rest of the week and into the weekend and early next week, the majority of the time starting Tuesday through next Monday should feature milder weather.

Before discussing the higher numbers, here is a look at your forecast at the bus stop:

Morning temperatures at the bus stop:
There is a wide range of temperatures across our area this morning. Where clouds and flurries hold on longest, temperatures will be between 16 and 22. Where skies have been clear much of last night and are rather clear right now, temperatures are much colder. Numbers range from the single digits above zero to single digits below zero. Where skies just partially clear near or just before sunrise temperatures will be between 10 and 15 above zero.

Morning wind chills:
Real feel numbers will be the same or slightly lower than the actual air temperatures.

Morning sky condition & precipitation:
As mentioned above, there are different sky conditions across the area. For many areas east of Lake Ontario, across the North Country and near and north of Oneida Lake, skies are mainly clear with just some high clouds. Therefore, expect mostly sunny skies there. Lingering localized lake effect clouds and flurries will be found over sections of the Finger Lakes and southern tier. For the immediate CNY area, clouds and flurries will give way to brighter skies and some sunshine. To see any precipitation, click on Interactive Doppler Radar to zoom in anywhere and on Live Triple Doppler Radar.

What should I wear outside?:
You and your kids should wear a heavier winter coat, hat, and gloves. It is your decision on what you and your children should wear.

Any notable driving conditions today?:
None.

Afternoon ride home on the bus:
Sunshine will mix with high clouds. Afternoon temperatures will rise into the upper 20s to near 30. Normal high for Syracuse today is 34 degrees. Wind: Wind: Variable to ESE 3-9 MPH. Wind chills should be 20 to 25 degrees. To see any precipitation, click on Interactive Doppler Radar to zoom in anywhere and on Live Triple Doppler Radar.

What's next after today for temperatures?:
It looks likely that high temperatures should get into the upper 30s and lower to middle 40s for many areas for Wednesday. Numbers will remain above freezing Wednesday night. For Thursday, high temperatures should be well into the middle to upper 40s for many areas. There is even a chance that the mercury could crack 50 degrees, especially if enough sunshine can break through. That would be high enough for the mildest day of February so far. Temperatures will likely slide from the middle 30s Friday morning down into the 20s by the end of the day. Saturday should be seasonable with teens in the morning and middle 30s during the afternoon. The weather pattern appears to show our numbers going above average again for Sunday and Monday with upper 40s possible.

Notable numbers for Syracuse:
•The normal high temperature for the next 7 days is near 35 degrees.
•Syracuse has only hit 40 degrees in February 2018 2 times so far.
•The highest temperature in Syracuse this month was 46 degrees on February 1st.
•The last time Syracuse hit 50 degrees was January 27th.

Precipitation and flooding threat:
There will be nothing worse than some sprinkles Wednesday, Wednesday night and during the day Thursday. The best chance for some slightly steadier rain will be Thursday night into early Friday morning. Even this appears to be about 0.25" to 0.50". This would not be enough to cause any widespread flooding issues. However, we always keep an eye on rivers, streams and creeks for the chance for ice jams to develop and potentially some flooding behind any ice jams. In addition, if your yard or basement typically gets wet or floods during thaws, you may want to be ready for this especially Thursday night into Friday morning. We will keep you posted if flooding looks more or less likely.

For an hour-by-hour breakdown of today’s skies, temperatures, and any precipitation place-by-place, watch NBC-3 Today in CNY through 7 AM and the Today Show where I will be showing you the Futurecast to see what’s next. I will also share any other important weather information & alerts that may be coming up over the next 7 days. Plus, follow us on Facebook and Twitter for even more constant updates.

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