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UPDATE: Record warmth likely. What is the risk for flooding? How warm will it get?

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***UPDATED at 5:47 AM Tuesday***

Good morning! Near record setting temperatures will be likely today, tonight and lasting through midday Wednesday before temperatures drop Wednesday afternoon and be close to normal for Thursday. I will discuss how warm it will get, how these temperatures compare to records & normal, and the threat for flooding. First, let me give you your wake up forecast for today:

Morning temperatures today:
There is a wide range of temperatures this morning. However, all numbers are way above normal. Typically, a late February morning should have temperatures in the Teens. Yet, most of central New York is in the 40s and 50s. Temperatures should be between 45 and 55 for most of our area through mid-morning. However, the cooler countryside is between 37 and 44.

Morning wind chills today:
None.

Morning sky condition & precipitation:
The wettest weather with the most consistent rain will occur east of Lake Ontario and across the North Country. Across the southern tier and southern Finger Lakes, it will be much drier with only a chance for a passing sprinkle or shower. Across the immediate CNY area including areas near the Thruway and Route 5 corridors, there will be an opportunity for passing scattered rain showers from time to time. However, there should also be dry periods. There is a chance for breaks of sunshine, especially over the southern tier. You can track precipitation by clicking on Interactive Doppler Radar to zoom in anywhere and on Live Triple Doppler Radar.

What should I wear outside?:
You and your kids can opt for a lighter jacket today. It is ultimate your decision what you and your kids should wear.

Any notable driving condition issues?:
Roads will be wet.

Afternoon plans today:
Expect a very similar weather pattern as this morning. The wettest weather with the most consistent rain will occur east of Lake Ontario and across the North Country. Across the southern tier and southern Finger Lakes, it will be much drier with only a chance for a passing sprinkle or shower. Across the immediate CNY area including areas near the Thruway and Route 5 corridors, there will be an opportunity for passing scattered rain showers from time to time. However, there should also be dry periods. There is a chance for breaks of sunshine for many areas, but especially for southern and central New York. Expect near record setting temperatures. High temperatures should be in the middle to upper 60s for CNY with a chance for 70 further southwest where more sunshine is likely. Numbers should be in the upper 50s to near 60 over the North Country. The record high for Syracuse today is 65 set back in 1930. It will be quite breezy. Wind: SSW increasing to 15-25 with gusts to 30-40 MPH. To track any precipitation, click on Interactive Doppler Radar to zoom in anywhere and on Live Triple Doppler Radar.

Record warmth ahead:
There are 2 temperature records that are in jeopardy for Syracuse coming up in the short term.
• Record high temperature for February 20: 65 (1930)
• Record high temperature for February 21: 65 (1997)

Last time Syracuse has been this warm:
• The warmest Syracuse has been in 2018 so far: 62 degrees.
• Last time Syracuse has been warmer than 62: November 3rd (64 degrees).
• Last time Syracuse has been warmer than 64: October 28th (71 degrees).

February flashback:
Nearly 1 year ago to the date, Syracuse had 3 consecutive days with record highs. The upcoming 2 day warm up this year will have similar temperatures.
• February 23, 2017: 69 degrees.
• February 24, 2017: 71 degrees. This was the warmest it has ever been for any day in February.
• February 25, 2017: 68 degrees.
Record in Syracuse goes back to 1902.

Snow is not finished for the season:
• It should be noted that after this 3 day stretch of record highs (which included the all-time warmest February day on record), there was quite a bit of snow thereafter.
• Syracuse received 31.5" of snow after this 3 day stretch of record warmth. So, it is very likely more snow is on the way.
• In fact, new computer model information is indicating an increasing threat for accumulating snow for at least part of our area for Thursday. Stay tuned for updates.

What is the risk for flooding?:
With temperatures near record levels and way above the freezing mark, it is very likely that any remaining snow pack over the lower and even higher elevations of central and southern New York will completely melt off. However, there is not a lot of snow pack left in these areas. However, east of Lake Ontario over sections of the Tug Hill Plateau and Adirondacks, there is still a large amount of snow pack and water contained within this snow pack. Up to 5-10" of water is inside this snow pack over the very highest elevations of the Tug Hill and Adirondacks. Besides the snow melt due to very warm temperatures, our entire area will receive some occasional rain between midday today and Wednesday evening. At this time, it appears that the heaviest rain may occur in the same spots that have the most snow pack and water stored inside. Portions of the North Country, Adirondacks and Tug Hill Plateau region will probably receive 1 to 2" of rain. If you live along the Black River basin & the Salmon River basin and its tributaries, I would be ready for flooding to occur. In addition, low-lying and lowland flooding will also be possible in these areas, as well. There already is a flood watch in effect for Oswego, Oneida, Jefferson and Lewis counties due to the combination of very warm temperatures and rain causing a significant amount of melting and run off. I am also a little bit concerned about the Delta Dam area and Mohawk River as some of this water could run off into these areas, as well.

For the rest of central New York, the Finger Lakes and southern tier, the amount of rainfall should be lower. The further south you go, the better the chance for much less rain. Even though there is no flood watch in effect, we still need to carefully watch waterways that typically flood in the spring. We will carefully watch Cross Lake, the Seneca River, the Tioughnioga River, the Chenango River, the Owasco Outlet, the Onondaga Creek and all other rivers, lakes, streams that typically flood. In addition, if your basement typically floods and your yard typically has standing water, you should be prepare for possible basement flooding across the area. Make sure your sump pump is in good working order.

For an hour-by-hour breakdown of today’s skies, temperatures, and any precipitation place-by-place, watch NBC-3 Today in CNY through 7 AM and the Today Show through 10:30 AM where I will be showing you the Futurecast to see what’s next. I will also share any other important weather information & alerts that may be coming up over the next 7 days. Plus follow us on Facebook and Twitter for even more constant updates.

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