It??s officially two weeks away from December 25th. So, the annual question that I hear a lot from viewers is: ??Will we receive a White Christmas??? You might also be wondering what ??technically qualifies?? as a White Christmas. According to the National Climate Data Center, a White Christmas is defined as having at least 1?? of snow on the ground on December 25th.
Historically speaking, here are climatological averages across New York State for 1??, 5??, and 10?? of snow on the ground shown below. Remember that, the percentages under the 1?? category qualifies for a White Christmas. In addition, take a look at the map presented with this web story. You??ll see that our area typically receives one about two out of every three years. Parts of the Tug Hill Plateau, the highest hills near the Route 20 corridor of the central & southern tier and the Adirondacks typically receive one over 90% of the time.Percent Chance of a White Christmas City Snow depth in inches 1" 5" 10+" Albany 63% 30% 13% Binghamton 67% 43% 17% Buffalo 57% 23% 13% Glens Falls 76% 59% 21% Massena 77% 47% 23% New York City 10% 7% 0% Poughkeepsie 45% 28% 7% Rochester 60% 23% 3% Syracuse 70% 47% 20% Utica 71% 46% 18% Watertown 69% 41% 21%
This season has been anything but typical. While there have been days with over 1?? of snow east of Lake Ontario and across sections of the central and southern tier, Syracuse has yet to receive 1?? of snow yet this season. In fact, Syracuse is about to be in 2nd place all time since 1902 for consecutive days without receiving at least 1?? of snow. Syracuse also is about to be in the top 5 latest dates on record without receiving 1?? of snow.
While there will be some lake effect snow east of Lake Ontario Wednesday and Wednesday night, it appears unlikely that Syracuse nor much of central New York will receive 1?? of snow. Thursday and Friday appear to be sunny. We need to look more long range for snow.
Further down the road, this weekend features a mixed bag system that could give us 1?? of snow. However, I am not overly excited about this system. The pattern into the middle of next week and yet again right before Christmas Day shows 2 separate systems that will give us a better chance for widespread sticking snow. I would think that one or both of these systems should be able to not only break Syracuse??s snowless streak without receiving 1??, but also produce enough cold air for this 1?? of snow to be around on Christmas Day. My bets would be that there will be some snow by Christmas Day. However, the way things have been going lately, it is definitely not a sure thing.
Are you itching for some snow? Are you ready to snowmobile or ski? Or, have you been happy to enjoy the easy driving patterns without snow? Let me know with comments here and our Facebook page here.Become my facebook friend here by ??liking?? my fan page, and "follow" me on Twitter here (@PeteWeatherBeat). For more on your weather forecast, click on ??Weather?? and then the ??Live Triple Doppler Radar?? tab on our weather page. Make sure you refresh the Doppler radar to see the very latest information, as well. Furthermore, we have our new Interactive Doppler Radar on our website. You can zoom down to street level with Interactive Doppler Radar. You are in total control of where the radar can zoom in. Give it a try. In addition, you may tune to NBC Weather Plus on Time Warner Cable digital channel 133 or over the air 3.3 to get the very latest weather updates locally and nationally.