Above average temperatures are ahead. Will flooding threaten CNY?


Good morning! Above average temperatures are already occurring this morning. This will continue through this afternoon, tonight, Thursday, Thursday night and into Friday. Will this provide for any flooding? I will discuss this threat below. First, here is a look at your forecast at the bus stop:

Morning temperatures at the bus stop:
Most spots should be between 30 and 35.

Morning wind chills:
Real feel numbers will be between 23 and 28.

Morning sky condition & precipitation:
Skies will probably be mostly cloudy most of the time. However, a few peeks of sun will be possible. To see any precipitation, click on Interactive Doppler Radar to zoom in anywhere and on Live Triple Doppler Radar.

What should I wear outside?:
You and your kids should wear a heavier winter coat, hat, and gloves. It is your decision on what you and your children should wear.

Any notable driving conditions today?:

Afternoon ride home on the bus:
Clouds will have a better chance to mix in with more in the way of sunshine. Afternoon temperatures will rise into the lower to middle 40s, which is about 10 degrees above average. Normal high for Syracuse today is 34 degrees. Wind: SSW 10 MPH. Wind chills should be between 33 to 38 degrees. To see any precipitation, click on Interactive Doppler Radar to zoom in anywhere and on Live Triple Doppler Radar.

Above average temperatures continue through Friday morning & return early next week:
Numbers will remain above freezing and well above average tonight. For Thursday, high temperatures should be well into the middle to upper 40s for many areas. There is even a chance that the mercury could crack 50 degrees, especially if enough sunshine can break through. That would be high enough for the mildest day of February so far. Temperatures will likely still be above freezing through Friday morning. However, numbers should fall into the 20s by the end of the day. Saturday should be seasonable with teens in the morning and middle 30s during the afternoon. The weather pattern appears to show our numbers going above average again for Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday with upper 40s or higher possible.

How likely is flooding across our area?:
There will be nothing worse than some sprinkles or very light scattered rain showers between now and Thursday afternoon. The best chance for some steadier will be Thursday night into early Friday morning. Total rainfall during that period still appears to be about 0.25" to 0.50". This would not be enough to cause widespread flooding issues. However, we always keep an eye on lakes, rivers, streams and creeks for the chance for ice jams to develop and potentially some flooding behind any ice jams. The anticipated melting and this rainfall will probably cause some ice to break off of rivers and streams. We will watch to see if enough of these pieces of ice jam up any localized rivers, streams, creeks, and lakes. In addition, if your yard or basement typically gets wet or floods during thaws, you may want to be ready for this especially Thursday night into Friday morning. I do expect soils to be quite wet with some standing water. We will keep you posted if flooding looks more or less likely.

Notable numbers for Syracuse looking ahead:
• The normal high temperature for the next 7 days is near 35 degrees.
• Syracuse has only hit 40 degrees in February 2018 two times so far over the first 13 days.
• The highest temperature in Syracuse this month was 46 degrees on February 1st.
• The last time Syracuse hit 50 degrees was January 27th.

For an hour-by-hour breakdown of today’s skies, temperatures, and any precipitation place-by-place, watch NBC-3 Today in CNY through 7 AM and the Today Show where I will be showing you the Futurecast to see what’s next. I will also share any other important weather information & alerts that may be coming up over the next 7 days. Plus, follow us on Facebook and Twitter for even more constant updates.

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