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Crunching the Numbers: Absentee ballots to determine victor in tight NY-22 race

U.S. Rep. Claudia Tenney and Anthony Brindisi (CNYCentral File Photo / Provided by Anthony Brindisi for Congress)

Whoever ends up winning New York's unresolved 22nd Congressional District race, it's all about the numbers.

While less than 1,500 votes separate Democrat Anthony Brindisi and Republican Rep. Claudia Tenney — it was narrowed to 1,293 after a machine error was reported in Broome County — the race will be decided by absentee ballots, which are still coming in to local boards of elections.

CNYCentral spent Wednesday crunching the number of absentee ballots counted so far throughout the eight counties that make up the district.

But in trying to determine who might have the advantage, registered Republicans were grouped with third parties that lean right and Democrats with parties that lean left.

Looking at the absentee ballots this way gives reason for optimism for Rep. Tenney.

Out of the all the absentees returned so far, 48 percent percent are voters who are registered Republicans or lean right, while 39 percent are voters who are Democrats or lean left. An additional 13 percent of the ballots are from voters who aren't enrolled in a party.

The two counties with the largest number of non-enrolled absentee voters are Broome and Oneida — the two most populous counties of the district — both of which voted for Brindisi in the election and could swing a few more votes in his direction.

RELATED | Brindisi confident he will win CNY congressional race after absentee ballots are counted

Gains for both candidates in the counties favorable to them could narrow the margin between them to just a few hundred votes.

The 22nd Congressional District covers Chenango, Cortland, Madison, and Oneida counties, and parts of Oswego, Broome, Herkimer, and Tioga counties. It includes the cities of Binghamton, Utica and Rome.

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