ALERT: Tracking lake effect snow now through Friday. Heaviest snow east of Lake Ontario
***UPDATED at 7:20 AM Thursday***
A Winter Storm WARNING is in effect for the following counties:
Jefferson & Lewis counties until 1 AM Friday.
A Winter Storm WARNING in this case means that significant lake effect snow is likely in localized areas within the warned area. A large difference in snowfall is likely even within the warned area.
A Winter Weather ADVISORY is in effect for the following counties:
Oswego county until 1 AM Friday.
Northern Oneida county from 10 AM Thursday until 7 AM Friday.
A Winter Weather ADVISORY is issued in this case because a spray of lake effect snow showers, flurries and at times steadier lake effect snow squalls will be over these counties causing accumulating snow. While total snow amounts are not expected to be extremely heavy, there should be enough snow to cause travel trouble. You will find a large difference in snowfall amounts. The weather can vary from locally heavy snow to flurries even within these counties.
Here is what we are expecting:
During the daytime hours of Thursday, expect numerous snow showers east and northeast of Lake Ontario. There will be some heavy snow squalls at times over parts of Jefferson, Lewis, and northern Oswego counties. Elsewhere in CNY, there will be variable cloud cover, some intervals of sun, scattered flurries and passing inconsequential light snow showers. New snow between 7 AM Thursday and 5 PM: Many areas east-northeast of Lake Ontario will receive 3-6" of new snow. Closer to the Lake Ontario shoreline, expect 1-3" due to melting. Inside the most persistent snow bands & over the highest elevations local new amounts during this time period could exceed 6"+. Elsewhere across CNY, new snow amounts will range from nothing to a trace to perhaps a localized coating to less than 1".
During the early evening, expect a combination of a lake effect snow moisture and a cold front moving through should allow a large area of steadier snow to swipe across our entire area with a quick accumulation. Any localized snow squalls leftover east of Lake Ontario should move southeast of Lake Ontario and weakening dramatically. New snowfall between 5 PM Thursday and 7 AM Friday should range from one-half inch to 1-2" for many areas. However, 2-6" of snow will be possible inside the most persistent squalls east of Lake Ontario early in the evening.
For the day Friday, expect a cold day with leftover flurries and a spray of minor scattered light snow showers tapering to some sunshine. New snow between 7 AM Friday and 5 PM Friday should be just another dusting to coating to an inch. However, a there is an opportunity for a thin line of steadier lake snow to occur somewhere between Rochester, the southeastward cutting across the northern Finger Lakes and then across the central and southern tier. Inside this localized area, an additional 1-3" will be possible.
Here is a forecast for total new snow between 7 AM Thursday and 7 AM Friday. See above for a breakdown of amounts per period.
If your area has a winter storm warning or winter weather advisory, here is what you should do:
Know which county you live in, and where you are in relation to steady snow.
Have a winter storm kit ready in your car in case you are stranded.
Keep an eye on Interactive Doppler and Triple Doppler radars on CNYcentral.com.
Keep your phone with your CNYcentral mobile app turned on so if warnings are issued you will know.
Periodically check NBC3, CBS5 and CW6 for updates.