Record warmth this morning, tumbling temperatures midday, snow threat Thursday


Good morning! Tuesday's 69 degrees in Syracuse broke the daily record for February 20th . The old record was 65 degrees set back in 1930. That 69 degrees Tuesday also tied for the 2nd warmest temperature on record for any day of the month of February. The warmest it has ever been for any day in February happened last year on February 24, 2017 when it hit 71 degrees.

So far today, Syracuse has already been as warm as 65 degrees which ties the record high for February 21st (set back in 1997 and 1953). There are BIG temperature changes coming up next today. We are also monitoring the threat for isolated flooding and a new threat for snow. Here is what to expect:

Morning temperatures:
Most of CNY will be between 60 and 66 early this morning rising into the upper 60s to near 70 by 10 AM. However, temperatures will start falling at or after 11 AM. However, the cooler countryside will be between 40 and 59, rise into the lower 60s by 10 AM and then fall at or after 11 AM.

Morning sky condition & precipitation:
Expect some sunshine through high clouds this morning. Clouds will thicken from northwest to southeast between 10 AM and 12 PM. Some rain will also be developing towards the end of the morning and by 12 PM. You can track precipitation by clicking on Interactive Doppler Radar to zoom in anywhere and on Live Triple Doppler Radar.

What should I wear outside?:
You and your kids will not need a jacket for most of this morning. However, with fast falling temperatures this afternoon, a jacket or even a heavier coat will be necessary by late this afternoon. It is ultimate your decision what you and your kids should wear.

Any notable driving condition issues?:
Roads will become wet midday and continue through this afternoon.

Afternoon conditions:
Skies will be overcast with occasional mainly light rain. Temperatures will be tumbling quickly midday. Numbers will probably drop about 15 to 20 degrees by 12 PM and continue to drop another 10 to 15 degrees by sunset. Temperatures will be near 50 at noon, dropping through the 40s during the afternoon and end the day in the upper 30s. Wind: WNW 10-20 with gusts to 30 MPH. Wind chills will drop into the upper 20s by sunset. To track any precipitation, click on Interactive Doppler Radar to zoom in anywhere and on Live Triple Doppler Radar.

What is the risk for flooding?:
• With temperatures continuing near record levels Wednesday morning rapid snow melt continues. At this time, it appears that the best chance for some minor flooding (assuming no ice jams along waterways) will be along parts the Black River basin & the Salmon River basin and its tributaries. In addition, low-lying and lowland flooding will also be possible in these areas, as well. There already is a flood watch in effect for Oswego, Oneida, Jefferson and Lewis counties due to the combination of very warm temperatures and rain causing a significant amount of melting and run off. I am also a little bit concerned about the Delta Dam area and Mohawk River as some of this water could run off into these areas, as well.

• For the rest of central New York, the Finger Lakes and southern tier, even though there is no flood watch in effect, we still need to carefully watch waterways that typically flood in the spring. We will carefully watch Cross Lake, the Seneca River, the Tioughnioga River, the Chenango River, the Owasco Outlet, the Onondaga Creek and all other rivers, lakes, streams that typically flood with snow melt.

• Finally, ice jams may form along any river, stream, creek or lake. Ice jams are very unpredictable and can break up, move and jam again very quickly. Water backing up behind the jam is the main flood threat, and can flood areas under deep water with surprising speed. Favored ice jam locations are where a river bends or slows, at bridge abutments, or near islands, sand bars, and other obstructions to river flow. Be aware of this possibility and potential if you live or work near any river or stream that typically floods due to ice jams.

What's new with Thursday's snow threat?
We have been telling you for a few days that there is a threat for snow for at least part of upstate New York during Thursday. Looking at new information into the Weather Authority weather center, shows significant differences as to what might happens. Multiple computer models continue to give absolutely no snow for much of central New York with 1-3" of snow possible over the Route 17 and far southern tier of New York. Other computer models shift this snow shield about 75 miles further northward. This would bring 1-3" of snow up to about the Thruway corridor and the immediate CNY area. These further northward computer models also bring as much as 3-6" of snow across the Route 5, Route 20, Route 79 and 206 corridors. This would place many hill town locations of central and southern New York in the 3-6" range for snow. Either way, there is sharp cut-off from snow to no-snow that will occur either across parts of central New York or southern New York. Needless to say, there is a lot of uncertainty with this system. Stay tuned for updates online and on-air on NBC3 and CBS5.

To see my snowfall forecast watch NBC3 and CBS5 newscasts. You can also click here and scroll down to the bottom of the page to find our snowfall forecast.

For an hour-by-hour breakdown of today’s skies, temperatures, and any precipitation place-by-place, watch NBC-3 Today in CNY through 7 AM and the Today Show through 10:30 AM where I will be showing you the Futurecast to see what’s next. I will also share any other important weather information & alerts that may be coming up over the next 7 days. Plus follow us on Facebook and Twitter for even more constant updates.

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