Windy & warm today, tracking a fast-moving severe t-storm risk near sunset
Good morning! Here is what you need to know before you go so you can plan ahead for today.
Most spots will start the morning between 65 and 70. Number should rise into the middle to perhaps upper 70s by the end of the morning. There will be quite a difference for sky conditions this morning. Many hill town locations of the southern tier, eastern and northeastern areas will be rather cloudy this morning. Other parts of CNY will either have cloudy skies giving way to some intervals of sunshine. Some leftover showers and thundershowers will still be possible this morning especially over northern sections. Wind speeds will be increasing through the morning. Sustained southerly winds should climb to 20-30 MPH with gusts to 40 MPH.
During this afternoon, it will remain windy with a mixture of clouds and sunshine. High temperatures will vary from the middle to upper 70s where clouds persist across hill town locations to the lower 80s for Syracuse to perhaps as high as the middle to upper 80s between Rochester, Sodus, Oswego and Geneva. Most of the afternoon will be dry. Sustained southerly winds should be between 20-30 MPH with gusts to 40 to 50 MPH. This type of wind gust will probably not produce too much damage in general. However, some tree branches and weakened power lines may come down.
More importantly, I am concerned about a fast-moving line rain showers or thunderstorms that will quickly push through our area. There is some uncertainty regarding how weak or how strong this line will be. If this line holds together, even though it would not last very long, damaging wind would be likely in excess of 60 MPH.
I have attached a video forecast showing an hour-by-hour progression of today’s weather hour-by-hour and place-by-place across central New York.
We will carefully monitor how this line of showers and thunderstorms develops and moves through our region and timing of this line.
I have attached another video forecast showing you how strong the general wind will be today, the various severe weather threats from the line of showers and thunderstorms, and the storm threat timeline.
The Storms Prediction Center has placed many portions of CNY and western NY in the “enhanced risk” category for severe thunderstorms with the rest of CNY in the “slight risk” category for severe thunderstorms for this line. Since there will be a lot of wind energy around with this system, as well as other atmospheric dynamics, damaging winds, hail and rotating thunderstorms will be possible in any severe thunderstorms.
An “enhanced risk” slight risk means there is a 30% chance for damaging winds within 25 miles of any spot.
A “slight risk” means there is a 15% chance for damaging winds within 25 miles of any spot.
If a “WATCH” is issued for your area, that means conditions are becoming more favorable for severe weather, but conditions are not dangerous yet.
If a “WARNING” is issued for your area, then severe weather conditions are imminent for the counties and places warned. The CNYcentral Weather Authority will keep you up to date on TV, on CNYcentral.com, on the CNYcentral Mobile App, on Facebook and on Twitter.
We are still on course and on track for much cooler weather. In fact, the late Saturday night into early Sunday morning and late Sunday night into early Monday morning temperatures will be the coolest of the season so far!